“Drill, Baby, Drill” Already Debunked by Bush Administration

Sarah Palin, a self-described energy expert, implies that we now rely on imported oil because we refuse to drill abundant domestic supplies; if we only did that we’d be energy independent.  Although Obama supports more drilling within a framework of efficiency and renewable power, domestic drilling is the very heart of the McCain-Palin energy plan.  Can drilling really work?

Considering three factors, not widely discussed in this campaign, will help us make the right choices about our energy future.  One, the value of offshore drilling has already been debunked – by the Bush Administration.  Two, the world’s oil supply is drying up much faster than new oil can be found.  Three, as CNN reports, oil price shocks and supply disruptions are on the way, but neither McCain nor Obama has said a word about the problem, let alone how they would respond.  More domestic oil drilling can’t fix our energy crisis.  Energy independence means a rapid move beyond all oil, whether domestic or imported.  Anything less is doomed to failure.

The Bush Administration’s own Department of Energy says that while the US consumes about 25% of the world’s oil we have less than 3% of the world’s proven oil reserves.  The DOE’s Energy Information Agency reported that offshore drilling can yield up to 200,000 barrels per day – about 1% of America’s needs – in 20 years.  Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) would have a similar insignificant effect.  It would take about ten years before we’d see any oil from these sources, and neither would ever substantially change US oil supplies or prices.  Everyone chanting ‘drill, baby, drill’ didn’t get the memos from Bush Administration geologists.  They’re on the internet.  Any energy plan centered on domestic drilling is dead on arrival, and that’s just for starters.

Two, the problem with oil is worse than widely understood.  It’s not just that supplies are tight. World oil production is expected to peak around 2010, and begin dropping soon after that.  US oil production peaked in 1970 and has been dropping ever since, which is why two-thirds of our oil is now imported.  Production from our other top sources is already declining, or at risk of political disruption.  Oil imports from Mexico, our third biggest source of oil, have already dropped more in one year than offshore drilling will get us in 20 years.

Three, CNN reports oil price shocks and supply disruptions are on the way.  Matt Simmons, Republican CEO of a major energy investment banking firm, told CNN that the recent drop in oil prices is an illusion.  Prices will climb to $200, $300, or even higher.  Many observers agree, including the US Army Corps of Engineers, the US Government Accountability Office and independent geologists.

Straight talk about future constraints will motivate everyone, even global warming deniers, to adopt conservation and efficiency initiatives politically impossible today.  Why have neither McCain, Obama nor Mayor Bloomberg said a word about the need for contingency plans for fuel supply disruptions?

Those who act without understanding the basis of the energy crisis will only make matters worse.  Advocates for more oil drilling would keep us stuck in the past with 19th century fuels, technologies and strategies that won’t work.  The future belongs to those who harness the clean, permanent power of wind, sun and water.  We can create clean, cheap energy here at home, while restoring domestic manufacturing and create millions of green jobs that can’t be outsourced.  America can either lead this progress, or continue being left behind as Asian and European countries continue to dominate conservation, efficiency and renewable technologies.  These are the energy facts that McCain and Obama need to know, so we can buckle our seatbelts before we hit the potholes ahead of us.  In this case, knowledge is literally power.

“International Energy Outlook 2008,” US Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency (EIA) P. 32, [21 billion barrels reserves out of world total of 1,331 billion barrels] http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/0484(2008).pdf

“Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,” US EIA, 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/anwr/pdf/sroiaf(2008)03.pdf

“Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf,” US EIA, 2007, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html

“Recent drop in crude is an illusion, oil headed to $500,” CNN, http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/news/economy/500dollaroil_okeefe.fortune...

“Crude Oil:  Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing the Peak and Decline of Oil Production,” GAO-07-283, US Government Accountability Office, Feb. 2007, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

By Dan Miner, Sierra Club NYC, Chair  www.nyc.sierraclub.org

Go to http://www.nyc.sierraclub.org/ or  www.beyondoilnyc.org for the Sierra Club NYC report “Sustainable Energy Independence for NYC,” an extended version of this essay with more citations, and a five–page September 2008 update and report summary.